Samsung faces its biggest threat yet as Apple closes in on 2025’s top spot

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TL;DR

• Counterpoint Research expects Apple to overtake Samsung in smartphone sales this year and keep the top spot through 2029.
• iPhone shipments are projected to jump 10% in 2025, while Samsung’s Galaxy lineup grows only 4.6%.
• Analysts say that pandemic-era upgrades, a weaker dollar, easing U.S.–China tensions, and improving demand in price-sensitive regions all boost Apple’s momentum.

Samsung has led global smartphone sales for over a decade, but its dominance is now at risk. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is on track to overtake Samsung this year and remain the world’s top smartphone maker through 2029.

Projections from the market research firm indicate that iPhone shipments are expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025, while Samsung’s Galaxy line shipments are estimated to increase by only 4.6%. That’s a major gap for two companies often assumed neck-and-neck. On a global level, Apple is projected to grab around 19.4% of total smartphone shipments this year — a threshold not seen since 2011 (via Bloomberg).




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